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What is the right benchmark for your strategies?
The most appropriate benchmark for comparison with regard
to our Large Cap Active Equity product is either the
S&P 500 Index or the Russell 1000 Index. The S&P
500 is the customary benchmark used by our clients;
however, we also have clients that benchmark us against
the Russell 1000. Either is acceptable to us.
The most appropriate
benchmark for comparison with regard to our Mid Cap
Active Equity product is either the Russell Midcap Index
or the S&P MidCap Index. We have clients that benchmark
against either the S&P or the Russell Midcap indices.
Either is acceptable to us.
The most appropriate
benchmark for comparison with regard to our Small-Mid
Cap Active Equity product is the Russell 2500 Index
or the Russell 2000 Index.
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What is the Alpha objective
of your strategies?
New Amsterdam Partners'
performance goal for our strategies is to generate alpha
of 4% net of fees per year and a tracking error in the
3 to 8% range.
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What time period does your
expected return model cover?
The model gives expected
return for the next twelve months.
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What are the Tracking Error,
Information Ratio and Beta of the Large Cap and Mid
Cap portfolios?
New Amsterdam Partners'
portfolios are actively managed. As such, our Large
Cap and Mid Cap portfolios show a tracking error in
the 5.0 to 8.0% range and an information ratio in the
0.3 to 0.7 range (over rolling five and ten-year periods).
Our historical beta has remained relatively low: in
the 0.8 to 1.0 range.
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What is the smallest market
cap you will buy
in the portfolio(s)?
The smallest market
cap we would buy in any portfolio is $200 million for
our Small-Mid Cap Active Equity strategy.
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What is the largest market
cap you will buy
in the portfolio(s)?
Our Mid Cap portfolios
are cap-constrained; we will only consider buying companies
with market caps less than $9 billion at the time of
purchase. For Large Cap portfolios, we buy names with
an initial market cap greater than $5 billion.
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Does the model consider
different economic sectors?
The model is run in
two ways: once unconstrained and once with sector bands.
The output of both model runs groups the companies by
their sector. The unconstrained model run is free to
select the top 100 names regardless of sectors. This
tells us which sectors the model likes or dislikes,
based on how many stocks it is picking up from each
sector (i.e., sector weight). The second model run is
constrained such that the sector weights (number of
names in a sector) are at least 50%, and no more than
200%, of the weights in the index. These sector weight
constraints are consistent with our portfolio building
process.
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» How
do you approach sector diversification?
Our portfolios have
approximately 40 to 45 stocks diversified across 10
economic sectors (we define our sectors using GICS classifications).
By investing across 10 sectors we seek to reduce the
risk of overexposure to any single segment of the economy.
For major sectors, we are never more than two times
or less than one half the benchmark weighting. Weights
for smaller sectors may fall outside this band at times
but will not tilt the portfolio due to the relative
size of our major sector weights.
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» What
sector(s) does each analyst cover?
- Michelle
Clayman, CFA, Managing Partner & Chief Investment
Officer - Chairs Investment Meetings - Determines
the investment philosophy - Investment research; industry
generalist
- Nathaniel
Paull, CFA, Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager
- Director of research - Portfolio structuring and
trading/compliance supervision - Investment research
in information technology and telecommunications sectors
- Indrani
De, CFA, Director of Quantitative Research
- Quantitative research and backtesting
- Hong Hoang,
CFA, Principal & Senior Equity Analyst - Financials
sector
- Jeffrey
Hahn, CFA, Principal & Senior Equity
Analyst - Utilities, materials and energy sectors
- John Hingher,
CFA, Principal & Senior Equity Analyst - Consumer
sectors
- Summer
Barghouti , Equity Analyst - Health care
sector
- Jason Roytman,
CFA, Equity - Industrials sector
- Richard
McCloskey, CFA, Client Portfolio Manager
- Assists with portfolio management and serves as
a liaison between the Investment Team and our Marketing
& Client Service Team
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» How
many securities does each analyst cover ?
Our Investment Group
(comprised of ten members) covers about 150 securities:
our Buy Universe list (a result of our proprietary expected
return model), including our current holdings, as well
as certain securities on a "watch list" made
up of stocks that have appeared on that list in the
past.
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» Why
do your portfolios hold 40-45 stocks?
Modern Portfolio Theory
tells us that a fully diversified portfolio can be constructed
with as few as 30 stocks. On the other hand, our practical
experience puts the number more realistically at 40
to 45 stocks. Our process allows us to focus on the
highest expected return stocks - to own more than the
effective minimum to properly diversify would reflect
"name creep," and reduce the overall return
delivered to our clients.
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Do you have a back end model to
control risk?
We monitor and control
risk at each stage of our investment process and define
risk not simply as a specific quantitative measure but
also as methodology risk. We believe there is inherent
risk in longstanding processes that are not back tested
and carefully evaluated for enhancements.
Quantitative Research
Risk Control
Our backtesting process is part of New Amsterdam Partners'
investment technology diagnostics. The process tests
the validity of our investment model and indicates possible
areas for improvement of both the model and our investment
philosophy.
Backtests are run
for a variety of purposes. We monitor correlations between
our model-generated forecast expected returns and actual
stock price performance to quantitatively evaluate the
model's predictive ability. We also analyze each attribute
of our expected return model to reaffirm that all attributes
contribute significantly to the model's discriminatory
power. The test confirms that the combination of components
is more valuable than any single component used alone.
Additionally, we evaluate the performance of New Amsterdam
Partners' actual stock picks versus the performance
of model picks.
Fundamental Research
Risk Control
When presenting a stock for purchase, each analyst must
also complete the "Fundamental Checklist,"
a detailed breakdown of time-tested issues our most
senior analysts have found useful when evaluating a
company. Some of these issues include: revenue recognition
policy, debt load and maturity schedules, death spiral
covenants, option accounting, pension liabilities, litigation
concerns, effective tax rates, inventory bulges, off-balance
sheet financing and corporate governance.
Analysts use FactSet
Research Management Solutions (RMS) to structure, manage,
and track fundamental analysis using proprietary formats.
The RMS, through FactSet Internal Research Notes (IRN),
allows for data that resides in FactSet and data that
the analyst enters either through the IRN templates,
which have been built, or by attaching documents to
the electronic IRN, to be aggregated in a data downloaded
worksheet. This system replaced an internal legacy system
but incorporated many of the essential items. This allows
us to see a full picture of the investment story of
a company over time. Significant fundamentals are stored
under the categories of, potential for positive and
negative surprise, and risk factors. Quantitative statistics
such as expected return and growth estimates are also
stored for each company. The reports generated by our
research platform capture company information, current
market prices versus price targets, risk factors and
themes within an industry.
Portfolio Risk
Control
During portfolio construction, we look at risk control
in three areas: stock-specific risk, stock diversification,
and sector diversification. We examine each of our risk
exposures versus those of our benchmark to make sure
that our portfolios do not contain any unintended bets.
Additionally, one of the things we focus on during the
fundamental research stage of our investment process
is whether or not purchase candidates have similar risk
exposures to current holdings; by identifying these
characteristics, we can avoid unintended bets in our
portfolio.
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Do you use an optimizer?
New Amsterdam Partners
does not use an optimizer to structure or explicitly
manage portfolios as we utilize a bottom-up stock selection
process. However, we are concerned with both sector
weightings and stock weightings within our portfolios,
and place constraints around both. Additionally, while
we do not utilize an optimizer to explicitly manage
our portfolios, we do use optimization software to evaluate
risk exposures. This allows us to understand and evaluate
our risk exposures so that we do not have unintended
bets within our portfolios.
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» What
is your sell discipline?
Portfolio holdings
are continually monitored for possible sale in a number
of ways: First, we establish price targets for all holdings.
Once reached, if there is no further expected upside,
we sell. Secondly, underlying fundamentals are continuously
evaluated, which can lead to an analyst revising his/her
price target. Thirdly, our expected return model, identifies
those holdings that have suffered a drop in expected
return, due to deteriorating fundamentals. Conversely,
it also highlights new securities that may offer
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At what market cap does a mid cap
stock exit the portfolio?
New Amsterdam Partners
defines mid cap stocks as companies with market capitalizations
between $1 billion and $9 billion. This cap restriction
is placed on securities at the time of purchase. However,
if the value of a stock appreciates so that its market
cap exceeds $9 billion, we will not sell the position
based on valuation alone, but rather on the determination
of our Investment Group. As a stock appreciates, we
systematically reduce its portfolio position if its
value reaches 5.0% of the portfolio's market value.
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Does the team decide which stocks
to buy/sell
or the CIO?
All buy and sell decisions
are made via a consensus between the Chief Investment
Officer and Senior Portfolio Manager (with the CIO having
final say). They rely on individual sector analysts
to assist them in making these decisions. The Investment
Group holds regular meetings, chaired by the Chief Investment
Officer. In these meetings, the group reviews the firm's
economic and market outlook, sector allocation, current
holdings, buy and sell investment candidates, quantitative
research and performance attribution. In addition to
regularly scheduled Investment group meetings, there
is daily discussion, interaction and collaboration between
group members on any developments that may impact the
portfolio.
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How often is the model run?
Our proprietary expected
return model is run twice a month. We may run the model
at any other time as we feel necessary.
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How do your fundamental analysts
forecast a company's cash flow?
Our cash flow forecast
is a distillation of all that we know about a given
company, its industry, and the current and long-term
macroeconomic outlook. To understand a company and its
financial productivity requires a number of steps. First,
we examine all publicly available data, including annual
and quarterly reports, paying particular attention to
how the company has performed in times of both economic
expansion and recession. We also examine the balance
sheet relative to the cash that will be required to
finance both the anticipated growth of the firm as well
as the economic depreciation of the firm's assets. Next,
we look at management's track record, including their
ability to grow the business both organically and through
the selective use of acquisitions. Finally, we analyze
the industry itself, trying to discern whether or not
it is an inherently attractive (shareholder-value creating)
industry or one with less favorable long-run return
characteristics.
Once we have a good
understanding of these factors, we prepare to forecast
the company's annual cash flows. Our forecasts typically
cover a whole business cycle, 7 to 10 years, and take
into account what we know about how revenues and margins
will be impacted by both a slowing and accelerating
economy. We are conservative in our estimates and do
not assume perpetual straight-line revenue growth; most
businesses/industries demonstrate some form of cyclicality
and we try to capture this in our forecasts.
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What pick up in expected return
do you look for when swapping out of one stock and into
another?
If we decide to swap
one stock for another in the same or similar sector,
we would only consider candidates that offer a 4% pick-up
in expected return after transaction costs.
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What is your typical holding period
for
a stock / turnover?
Turnover in our portfolios
is relatively low - in the 40 to 80% range over a rolling
12-month period - resulting in a typical holding period
of three to four years. This illustrates our conviction
in what we buy and aligns the long-term outlook of our
portfolios with that of our clients' investment horizons.
A byproduct of this approach is a benefit to our tax-sensitive
clients.
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How are portfolio characteristics
(p/e, p/b,
growth, roe) calculated?
We calculate various
characteristics for our composites, portfolios, and
relevant indices as a portfolio risk control measure.
The characteristics are in the areas of valuation, dividend
yield, expected growth, total return, profitability,
leverage, past performance, systematic risk, and market
capitalization. The calculation of the characteristics
is done using accounting data from Compustat and pricing
data from IDC database. This whole process is automated
using the Portfolio Analytics module in FactSet Data
Systems. Portfolio characteristics are calculated as
of market closing on each month-end.
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Do you use Street estimates for
forecast growth,
return on equity, etc.?
We use Street estimates
as a starting point. We then make a series of algorithmic
adjustments to these estimates as they are inputted
into our expected return model. These adjustments take
into account an overestimation bias on the part of the
Street as well as anomalous accounting. An important
part of our process is to identify where the consensus
earnings estimate is and how our view and insights differ
- that is one way we add significant value. Over time,
our backtesting shows our estimates to be more accurate
than those of the Wall Street consensus.
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How much cash is held in the portfolio?
Our portfolios are
fully invested; cash is held only as a residual to our
process or to accommodate client distribution needs
and is typically at 3% or less, though it never exceeds
5%.
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